Since the beginning of the corona pandemic, the IBE has carried out numerous research and teaching projects, organized events and provided information. You can find an listing aof these projects here; the relevant contact persons are happy to answer any questions you may have.
- Epidemiological modeling
- Public health and health services research
- Digital infection surveillance
- Medical care from COVID-19
- Teaching, lectures and events
Containment Measures in Epidemics: Fundamentals and Evaluation
In this project two mathematicians and one epidemiologist will put their forces together to understand the fundemantal dynamics behind the spread of epidemics. The key result will be a thorough theoretical and empirical treatment of a newly developed class of models that account explicitly for social structures as well as the mobility of individuals. The interplay of these two factors has not been recongnised and studied before, and the findings will enable us to perform a fine evaluation of the effectiveness of containment measures. More specifically, we plan to perform a theoretical treatment that allows us to understand complex models and to derive essential properties in a formal way. Besides the theoretical analysis in terms of asymptotic behaviour, we design simulation studies to explore the relationship between system behaviour in finite populations compared to its asymptotic properties. It is also a fundamental question to undestand how well certain system parameters can be estimated from available data (‚model calibration‘).
Inequality in SARS-CoV-2 incidences, mortality and fatality rates
Inequality in SARS-CoV-2 incidence, mortality, and fatality rates over time for different regions was considered. Absolute and relative Gini and Theil indices were calculated for this purpose. Indices were calculated for all continents and the countries of the European Union (EU) and the states of the United States USA). The focus of the paper is the comparison of inequality between the EU and the USA. The results were published in PLoS One.
Regional monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 infections by means of standardized case fatality rates
Within the scope of this project, the concept of a standardized case fatality rate (sCFR) is introduced. The regional sFFR can be estimated as the quotient of the regional standardized mortality and case rate and be presented in maps. Such maps are generated based on the Bavarian SARS-CoV-2 reporting data for different time periods and the time-varying regional heterogeneity observed therein is interpreted. The dashboard (link) shows the main result. The results have been submitted to Bundesgesundheitsblatt.
Regional and temporal trends in SARS-CoV-2 associated mortality in Bavaria
The project will visualize regional and temporal heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2 associated mortality in Bavaria. It will further investigate the influence of regional factors on SARS-CoV-2 associated mortality. The results have been submitted to Das Gesundheitswesen.
Distributional challenges regarding data on death and incidences during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic up to July 2020
In this contribution we discussed the fat-tail patterns in the distribution of the global COVID-19 data by analyzing data from 66 countries worldwide. We also explored their relevance at a lower, regional scale perspective (national, federal state), which is in our opinion more relevant for planning measures against the epidemic spread. For this we analyzed data from the German federal state of Bavaria during the first wave in spring 2020. A preprint of the work can be found in MedRXiv and the dataset and the R code are available at the IBE website.
Impact of social deprivation on SARS-CoV-2 incidence and mortality rates
In this project, the impact of Bavarian Index of Multiple Deprivation (BIMD) and its subdomains on standardized incidence rates (SIR) and standardized mortality rates (SMR) in Bavaria is investigated. The SIR and SMR are estimated simultaneously using a bivariate Bayeasian hierarchnical model. The project is carried out in collaboration with Helmholtz Zentrum München.
Mapping regional differences in coronavirus (COVID-19) infection rates: results of a Bayesian smoothing over regions of Bavaria
In this project, we present a method from geographic epidemiology and investigate its applicability to standardized SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates for Bavarian reporting data. The infection course is described descriptively and illustrated using maps.
Influence of regional factors on standardized SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in Bavaria
This project investigates the influence of different regional factors on standardized SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates (SIR) for different age groups over time in Bavaria. A further focus of the analysis will be the border with foreign countries. This is to identify possible effects of border closures.
IBE Corona Dashboard Bavaria
The current daily figures from the Bavarian State Office for Health and Food Safety will be presented on the dashboard. Incidence and death rates and hospital admissions are shown as curves over time. Individual districts can be selected and compared with the rest of Bavaria on a map.
Accounting for reporting uncertainty, new variants and vaccinations when estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19
Nach mehr als einem Jahr Erfahrung mit der Coronavirus-Krankheit 2019 (COVID-19) kämpfen viele Länder immer noch damit, ein Gleichgewicht zwischen epidemiologischem Nutzen und sozioökonomischen Kosten bei der Kalibrierung nicht-pharmazeutischer Interventionen (NPIs) zu finden. Angesichts der schwerwiegenden sozialen, wirtschaftlichen und psychologischen Auswirkungen einiger der angenommenen Interventionen ist es entscheidend, die Interventionen zu identifizieren, die die Ausbreitung des Virus am wirksamsten verlangsamen. Derzeitige Ansätze zur Schätzung der Wirkung von NPIs konzentrieren sich jedoch typischerweise auf relativ kurze Zeiträume und entweder auf die Anzahl der gemeldeten Fälle, Krankenhauseinweisungen oder Todesfälle. In dieser Arbeit entwickeln wir ein bayesianisch- hierarchisches Modell, da es flexible genug ist, um drei komplementären Informationsquellen in die Schätzung der wahren und unbekannten Anzahl von Infektionen zu integrieren, und dabei Meldeverzögerung und die Zeitvariation bei der Meldung in der Anzahl von gemeldeten Fällen zu berücksichtigen. Um Informationen über den gesamten Verlauf der Pandemie nutzen zu können, berücksichtigen wir ebenfalls die Verbreitung von B 1.1.7 und die Anzahl der Impfungen im Modell. Wir implementieren einen Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-Algorithmus, um Bayes-Inferenzen durchzuführen und die Auswirkungen von NPIs auf öffentlich verfügbare Daten aus europäischen Ländern abzuschätzen. Wir beobachten große zeitliche und geografische Variationen in der Fallerkennungsrate aufgrund von Änderungen der Testkapazität und Teststrategie. Das Modell zeigt eine gute Leistung bei simulierten Daten und bei Vorhersagen außerhalb der Stichprobe der Anzahl von Todesfällen und Krankenhauseinweisungen. Aufgrund des modularen Aufbaus ist das bayesianisch-hierarchische Modell sehr flexibel und in zukünftigen Studien wäre es problemlos möglich, weitere Virusvarianten zu berücksichtigen oder zusätzliche Daten zu integrieren, beispielsweise zur Anzahl der durchgeführten Tests, zu Wetterbedingungen, aus Seroprävalenzstudien, oder auf Kanalvirusmessungen.
Public health and health services research back to top ▲
EU-STOA panel study
Resilience amid the COVID-19 pandemic in the European Union - Psychosocial and mental health consequences, risk and protective factors, and policy options for European Union Member States and their citizens (ongoing) In cooperation with Leibniz-Institut für Resilienzforschung
CEOsys, mental health theme
Mental burden and its risk and protective factors during the early phase of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: systematic review and meta-analyses
Cooperation with ‘COSMO’ – population-based COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring: physical activity
Physical Activity during COVID-19 in German Adults: Analyses in the COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring Study (COSMO)
Cooperation with ‘COSMO’ – population-based COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring: psychosicial situation of children
Psychosocial situation of children measured with the SDQ questionnaire in different phases the COVID-19 pandemic: Analyses in the COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring Study (COSMO)
Cooperation with ‘COSMO’ – population-based COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring: well-being of adults
Wellbeing of adults measured with the WHO-5 Wellbeing questionnaire in different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: Analyses in the COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring Study (COSMO)
Cooperation with ‘COSMO’ – population-based COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring: burden on parents
Parental burden in different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic: Analyses in the COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring Study (COSMO)
Cooperation with ‘COSMO’ – population-based COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring: alcohol and tobacco consumption
Analysis of health behaviors such as smoking and alcohol consumption over different COVID-19 pandemic phases: Analyses in the COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring Study (COSMO)
SoNAR Global "COVID-19 Vulnerability Assessment and Community Engagement"
Cooperation with the Rachel Carson Center at LMU Munich as part of the HORIZON 2020 project 'A Global Social Sciences Network for Infectious Threats and Antimicrobial Resistance' (ongoing)
CEOsys, public health theme
Rapid review on the effectiveness of non-pharmacological measures implemented in the setting of long-term care facilities to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections and their adverse consequences (ongoing)
CEOsys, public health theme: S3 guidelines for schools
Evidence-based S3 Guideline on measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission in school settings
CEOsys, public health theme: scoping review schools
Measures implemented in the school setting to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: A Scoping Review (Link), followed by a rapid review (ongoing).
B-FAST "Schools and child-care facilities"
Psychosocial aspects of children in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in cooperation with the B-FAST project team (ongoing)
COVID Kids Bavaria Study
Health-related Quality of Life and psychosocial aspects in children in the course of the COVID 19 pandemic; cooperation with the COVID Kids Bavaria Team (ongoing)
Mental Health of Children and Adolescents
Interventions to ameliorate the psychosocial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on children – a systematic review
Primary study investigating health effects and experiences of university students participating in online teaching
In cooperation with Katholische Stiftungshochschule München Factors influencing study engagement during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study among health and social professions students (under review) Health and social science students experience high levels of psychological stress due to the COVID-19 pandemic: results of a cross-sectional study at Munich universities
CEOsys, topic area Public Health - travel-related control measures
Travel-related control measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic: We began by producing an evidence map to gain an overview of the topic (see link), followed by a rapid review, for the WHO and in collaboration with Cochrane, to assess the effectiveness of these measures. We recently completed the first update of this rapid review (see link), and published a related commentary article (see link). In a subsequent scoping review, the empirical evidence on unintended health and societal consequences of such measures was identified and mapped (see link).
Effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions
A Bayesian-hierarchichal approach to estimate the effectiveness of non-pharmacological interventions and to model the COVID-19 pandemic in Bavaria
The use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in patients with COVID-19
Rapid review requested by WHO and undertaken by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Evidence-Based Public Health
INTEGRATE-COVID: Criteria to guide evidence-informed decision-making on non-pharmacological interventions targeting COVID-19
Advancing and adapting the WHO-INTEGRATE framework through a comprehensive document analysis
Scientific expert committees in public health policymaking during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany
A document analysis (under review)
Coordination and contributions towards the Competence Network Public Health on COVID-19
An association of more than 20 scientific societies, to bundle their expertise for public authorities, institutes and policy-makers
Corona Infection Risk Surveillance (CORIMO)
Non-interventional case-control study. The objective is to assess which activities and circumstances were more common in corona-infected persons compared to individuals in which the test was negative.
Prevalence and Risk Factors of Infection in the Representative COVID-19 Cohort Munich
In the Prospective COVID-19 Cohort Munich (KoCo19), the seroprevalence (antibodies) was measured in 3,000 households and was compared with the reported incidence. Risk factors and mortality were also examined.
An expert prediction on how the COVID-19 pandemic will develop in Europe.
An international expert group with the participation of Prof. Eva Grill is attempting to forecast the theSARS-COV-2 epidemic in Europe for autumn and winter 2021 as well as for the coming years.
Calling for a mutual European strategy against the COVID-19 pandemic
An international group of experts with the participation of Prof. Eva Grill summarizes how the pandemic in Europe should continue to be tackled. It is essential to pursue a clear and consistent strategy throughout Europe and to communicate it in an understandable, timely and continuous manner in order to keep the economic and social costs for Europe and for the world as low as possible.
Digital infection surveillance back to top ▲
SARS-CoV-2 Infection Surveillance (SCOVIS)
SCOVIS is the Sars Cov Infection Surveillance of Klinikum München and helps to track infection events in the clinic. Here you can enter employees with different infection status and the corresponding contact persons. A pre-filled registration form for the RGU can also be downloaded.
Corona Patient Manager (CoPaMa) Dashboard
CoPaMa stands for Corona Patient Manager of the Munich Clinic and shows the patients currently on the ward including their diagnoses and tests (PCR and antibodies). Descriptive statistics add how busy the stations are.
Privacy-protecting, reliable response data discovery and federated analysis using COVID-19 patient observations (R2D2)
The R2D2 (Reliable Response Data Discovery for COVID-19) consortium is a distributed federated network which is currently composed of 14 health systems (13 in the USA and one in Germany - LMU of Munich). By transforming electronic health record (EHR) data or COVID-19 registry data of 3,461,626 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 and 327,976 diagnosed with COVID-19 into the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership Common Data Model, the network developed processes and implemented distributed algorithms (e.g. multivariate distributed logistic regression) to produce and aggregate answers to a variety of COVID-19-related questions posted at https://www.covid19questions.org. In an individual and institutional privacy-preserving manner, the R2D2 consortium demonstrated that it is possible to answer questions about COVID-19 using EHR data from systems that have different policies and must follow various regulations, without moving data out of their health systems.
Influence of Age, Gender, Race and Ethnicity on COVID-19 Symptoms Beyond Three Weeks
This project, which is based on R2D2 (see above), uses federated analysis to carry out a logistic regression of 48,000 patients in six U.S. centers in order to determine the influence of age, gender, race and ethnicity on certain Long-Covid symptoms.
Education and income levels determine whether the corona tracing app is used
The study supports the hypothesis of a digital divide that distinguishes users and non-users of the German corona tracing app “Corona Warn app”. This analysis of the COSMO data showed that socio-demographic factors such as education, income and region of residence influence whether the app has been downloaded and whether there is a willingness to use its functions. In addition to the consistent explanation of the functions and usefulness of the app, the implementation strategies should also be constantly reconsidered.
Medical care from COVID-19 back to top ▲
Investigation of risk factors for disease severity among young COVID-19 patients from Wuhan, China
This project focused on identifying risk factors for a severe disease course in young COVID-19 patients. Using classical analysis techniques and machine learning methods we analyzed clinical, demographic, treatment and laboratory measurements from COVID-19 patients with clinical outcome in a single hospital in Wuhan, China. The analysis was performed for all patients and separately for young (n=762) and elderly (n=714) patients in order to identify risk factors for a severe disease course that are pre-dominately relevant in young patients. The protein complement C3 showed the greatest difference in importance between young and elderly patients. Elevated levels of complement C3 seem to be associated with the risk of developing severe COVID-19 in young patients, whereas no such influence seems to exist for elderly patients.
Discontinuation versus continuation of renin-angiotensin-system inhibitors in COVID-19 (ACEI-COVID): a prospective, parallel group, randomised, controlled, open-label trial
IL-6-Hemmer und Baricitinib bei schwerem COVID-19
Benjamin Geisler interviews Professor Frederick Southwick of the University of Florida. They discuss two new groups of therapies for severe COVID-19: IL-6 inhibitors (such as tocilizumab) and baricitinib. Follow along as we review how they stimulate the immune system, what their indications are and what the evidence behind of those is, and what superinfections they might cause.
COVID-19 Drugs for Inpatients
Ben Geisler reviews the current treatments for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. He first discusses unspecific treatments: the management of fluid replacement and diuretics, as well as the indications for bronchodilators, antibiotics, and statins. He next reviews the current indications for the agents of proven efficacy: dexamethasone/steroids, remdesivir, baricitinib, tocilizumab/IL-6 inhibitors, and VTE prophylaxis. Finally he discusses the ethical dilemma of equipoise and the best resources for staying up to date with this ever changing topic.
Repurposing existing medications for coronavirus disease 2019: protocol for a rapid and living systematic review
Given that drug development takes time, this review aims to identify existing medications for other indications that could be repurposed for SARS-CoV-2. In particular, we are interested in pre-clinical and early clinical evidence for compounds that have an effect on SARS-CoV-1 and MERS.
Higher procoagulatory potential but lower DIC score in COVID-19 ARDS patients compared to non-COVID-19 ARDS patients
This retrospective study included intubated COVID-19 patients admitted with the diagnosis of ARDS to the ICU. The goal was to compare coagulation and inflammation parameters in patients with ARDS due to SARS-CoV-2 infection versus patients with ARDS due to other causes.
A Simplified Point-of-Care Lung Ultrasound Protocol to Detect Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Inpatients: A Prospective Observational Study
In this study, we assessed the diagnostic performance of lung point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) compared to either a positive nucleic acid test (NAT) or a COVID-19-typical pattern on computed tomography (CT) and to evaluate opportunities to simplify a POCUS algorithm. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.19.21254974v1
Teaching, lectures and events back to top ▲
PSPH COVID-19 Course
The M.Sc./M.P.H. course (July-August 2020) aimed at learning by teaching, a method in which students are made to learn material and prepare lessons to acquire skills like project management along with the subject matter. The main goal was to create learning units on Covid-19 related topics in the field of epidemiology or public health as a basis for an online course. The students worked in teams of 2-3.
Mansmann vs. Bhakdi: Corona already over?
The corona virus pandemic divides Germany. Some are in favor of strict measures such as a mask mandate. Others demonstrte for freedom. Tina Gerhäusser spoke with scientists Ulrich Mansmann and Sucharit Bhakdi gesprochen. In terms of corana virus, they are not in complete agreement.
Corona Lectures at LMU - "Covid-19 in the Fall of 2020: Analyzing Risks and Consequences"
In his Corona Lecture, Prof. Dr. Ulrich Mansmann presents epidemiological tools which can help with weighing risks and harms. Among other topics, he deals with the comparison between Covid-19 and influenza/flu as well as the frequent question whether there are other, more harmful diseases in Germany which we take for granted and which do not change our everyday life.
Virtual panel on health economic principles during the COVID-19 pandemic
A virtual expert panel was conducted which met to attempt a consensus on how existing principles of economic evaluation should be applied to therapeutics that emerge in a pandemic setting, with specific focus on severe, hospitalized cases of COVID-19. (paper under review)
Control of the pandemic - Gerd Antes visits LMU
Numbers and data play a major role in the Covid-19 pandemic. Are the correct numbers chosen to assess the course of the pandemic? Are there sufficient data to decide on pandemic measures? How can gaps in the evidence be filled? Prof. Dr. Gerd Antes' lecture on March 10, 2021 took place as part of the FORUM COVID-19 series of events organized by the Pettenkofer School of Public Health.
Workshop "Covid-19 in clinical and epidemiological studies"
Joint autumn workshop of the working groups" Statistical Methods in Medicine "(IBS-DR)," Statistical Methods in Epidemiology "(IBS-DR, DGEpi)," Statistical Methodology in Clinical Research "(GMDS) and" Epidemiological Methods "( DGEpi, GMDS, DGSMP) As invited speakers, we welcomed Prof. Dr. Joerg Hasford (LMU Munich), Dr. Cornelia Ursula Kunz (Boehringer Ingelheim), Prof. Dr. Sylvia Thun (Berlin Institute for Health and Niederrhein University of Applied Sciences) and Prof. Dr. Karl Lackner (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz) win. Prof. Dr. Hasford spoke on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on drug trials and shed light on the EMA's position on the issue. Miss Dr. Kunz spoke about the possibilities of adaptive designs in dealing with the problems caused by COVID-19 in clinical studies. Prof. Dr. Thun presented the "German Corona Consensus core dataset". Prof. Lackner discussed the influence of SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics on the data on the course of the pandemic. There were also 13 submitted presentations.
Coronavirus - Epidemiologist expects sharp rise in infections
The following questions were on the focus of the 11-minute conversation: How will the epidemic evolve in the fall and winter? How can schools be kept open despite rising incidences? Are vaccinated people really in a situation sorglas to enjoy life? What measures should guide our decisions as the epidemic continues to develop? What will happen to typical colds in the winter?
FORUM COVID-19: The communication of risk and uncertainty in the pandemic | Odette Wegwarth
Prof. Dr. Odette Wegwarth at the FORUM COVID-19 event of the Pettenkofer School of Public Health (www.psph-munich.de) on September 22, 2021. In her lecture, she will present the latest findings from her research, such as the communication of scientific uncertainties in the Corona pandemic succeeds. How do corona numbers have to be processed so that citizens understand them? How does communication influence the acceptance of measures? When are people more willing to be vaccinated? Lecture in German